Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate and compare the predictive ability of three mortality scoring systems; Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE) Ⅲ, Simplified Acute Physiology Score(SAPS) Ⅱ, and Mortality Probability Model(MPM) Ⅱ in discriminating in-hospital mortality for intensive care unit(ICU) patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.
Methods: Eighty-nine patients admitted to the ICU at a university hospital in Daejeon Korea were recruited for this study. Medical records of the subject were reviewed by a researcher from January 1, 2003 to March 31, 2004, retrospectively. Data were analyzed using SAS 8.1. General characteristic of the subjects were analyzed for frequency and percentage.
Results: The results of this study were summarized as follows. The values of the Hosmer-Lemeshow’s goodness-of-fit test for the APACHE Ⅲ, the SAPS Ⅱ and the MPM Ⅱ were chi-square H=4.3849 p=0.7345, chi-square H= 15.4491 p=0.0307, and chi-square H=0.3356 p=0.8455, respectively. Thus, The calibration of the MPM Ⅱ found to be the best scoring system, followed by APACHE Ⅲ. For ROC curve analysis, the areas under the curves of APACHE Ⅲ, SAPS Ⅱ, and MPM Ⅱ were 0.934, 0.918 and 0.813, respectively. Thus, the discrimination of three scoring systems were satisfactory. For two-by-two decision matrices with a decision criterion of 0.5, the correct classification of three scoring systems were good.
Conclusion: Both the APACHE Ⅲ and the MPM Ⅱ had an excellent power of mortality prediction and discrimination for spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage patients in ICU.
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